As October is almost upon us, we can start to get a clearer picture of what is going to happen as we approach May 2024.
The indications are:
Ramaphosa is losing support fast. Day by day, Ramaphosa is looking more and more like an ineffectual puppet, shilly-shallying all over the place; attempting to regain a shred of the ANC ‘s former status as LIBERATORS, STRUGGLE ICONS ETC. That scenario can only result in an outright collapse of the ANC – which maybe will be a good thing as; then, as I understand it, according to the Constitution, the official opposition, the DA will take over and try and restore order. The police and the army (what’s left of it) will be drawn in. However; the most wonderful thing about such an outcome is that THE CADRES WILL BE GONE AND HOPEFULLY SOME TRUE LEADERS WILL TAKE OVER!
Even in the rural areas where in previous elections the ANC somehow managed to convince the unaware citizens by using a combination of flowery speeches, full of empty promises that all will be OK, that they would be given houses ,which is simply a lie, KFC parcels, NHI health insurance and the like; and somehow the ANC will emerge as their saviour. Finally , 3 decades later the people are ONLY NOW realising that the ruling party, is rapidly being destroyed by its own cadres and that Cyril has neither the power nor the money to make this tarnished dream come true. Why did it take so long?
The poor, the middle classes and everyone else who is not an ANC cadre sees proof of that every time they go to a supermarket or spaza shop in the frightening increases in grocery prices. WHEN YOU HAVE NO FOOD ON THE TABLE – YOU RAPIDLY START RE-ASSESSING YOUR VOTING ALTERNATIVES; NEVER MIND WHAT SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUP YOU FALL INTO.
Julius Malema, who to my mind, reached his peak at FNB stadium in Soweto, at the EFF’s recent rally, I believe has finally shot his bolt. Although the EFF gained an impressive amount of votes in the last general election; as far as I can see – short of energising his relatively small army of ignorant uneducated SASSA GENERATION SUPPORTERS INTO OUTRIGHT ANARCHY; i.e. A FRENCH REVOLUTION STYLE ATTEMPT TO COLLAPSE THE WHOLE OF SOUTH AFRICAN SOCIETY. I can’t see where else he can go now, it seems that already his support is waning.
What also seems abundantly clear is that none of the top three political parties are likely to get + 50% in the election – so COALITION IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY.
Mmusi Maimane’s Build One South Africa party; although it boasts an impressive array of members who have opted to occupy positions as cabinet members in BOSA’S shadow cabinet that they envisage will take over the country; seems to me to be A VERY FORMIDABLE GROUP OF INTELLIGENT, CAPABLE PEOPLE. However, that outcome will only be realised when the votes for his new party come in. Alhough Mmaimane is clearly a very nice man with a very nice dream for the country, right now he and his allies seem irrelevant.
SUMMARY OF LIKELY OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF POLITICAL PARTY’S VOTES ASSESSED RIGHT NOW
ANC HOVERING AROUND 50%
DA 2O%
EFF 6-8%
So, what we are likely to be left with is COALITIONS, COALITIONS, COALITIONS!
Even if the ANC by some miracle gets 50% or slightly more; they will be in a very weak position in parliament and their chances of ruling as government, or alternatively getting into bed with partners such as the DA, the EFF or a dubious hodge podge of smaller parties who will spend more time squabbling with political opponents than in passing effective legislation that can start rebuilding the shattered failed state we have now – ARE VERY BLEAK!
A bleak outlook indeed! It seems that our only hope as a country is for GOOD PEOPLE TO FORM A COMPLETELY NEW TYPE OF GOVERNMENT THAT WILL WORK FOR THE PEOPLE.
As for the CAPEXIT PROSPECTS; I for one have serious doubts over whether The Cape Independence Party will be able to persuade the various major stakeholders in the Cape Province such as the DA, foreign investors who own substantial holdings in the Cape, the stakeholders who are involved in drilling for minerals, both on land and under the sea (showing wonderful prospects for present and future mining – operations), – are simply meekly going to hand over government of the Cape territory, without putting up a serious fight to block the initiative; not to mention the CAPE SEA ROUTE! WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY IMMENSELY IMPORTANT; strategically, economically and tourism – wise. I can’t see that a voting sheet comprising a referendum over whether the voter will support CAPEXIT will be allowed to be included in the ballot paper kit??
It’s a wonderful dream, but practically speaking, is it really feasible.? I think not!
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