Frans Cronje, a well- known political commentator and pollster who heads the Social Research Foundation cast aside some of prevailing clouds of doom and doom that are predicting wholesale catastrophe in our country when he opened a major conference in Hermanus recently.
He referred to some issues that might have escaped the notice of some South Africans, including myself.
He traced the history of our country from 1948 when the NATS took over, until today, including such events as World War11, the advent of democracy in 1994, with all the promise and prospects that offered; the financial and industrial boom that followed, that made our country the envy of the free world; followed by the gradual decline by the ANC government, foisted on us all, willy-nilly, until reaching the disaster we fear today.
The main point that Frans made was that; like so many developing countries in Africa and elsewhere at that that time, the downward slide experienced by such countries after breaking free of Post-Colonialism and Imperialism was slow, painful and tortuous. However, the slide eventually started to turn around and things improved.
In South Africa’s case; however, the recovery period is likely to be much faster because of the checks and balances that were built into our excellent constitution – post 1994, which were deliberately included to avoid such a catastrophe and aid faster recovery.
Assuming that the ANC will not get an overall country-wide 50% +1 majority (under 40% at last count today), then a coalition scenario will inevitably come into play.
The ANC will then have to come to terms with the unpleasant FACT (for them) that their time as autocratic, totally non- democratic FASCIST RULERS is over.
THE JACKBOOTS WILL HAVE TO COME OFF. THE BLOATED SECURITY FORCE THAT IS ONLY THERE TO BEAT UP PRIVATE CITIZENS WILL HAVE TO BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED. THE THOUSANDS OF ILLEGAL GUNS WILL BE DESTROYED. THE 83 MURDERS HAPPENING IN OUR COUNTRY EVERY DAY WILL STOP OR AT LEAST REDUCE, AND THE CRIMINAL GANGSTERS WILL BE PROSECUTED AND PUNISHED MORE EFFECTIVELY!
VENEZUELA IS NOT IN OUR FUTURE!
(Regarding politicians, please be under no illusions that I am starry- eyed about their motives. One has to be extremely cynical about the fact that all politicians, no matter what party they support, will always have personal gain and newsworthiness as their primary motivations)
Continuing with the post-election options that the ANC will be faced-with, and assuming that they are still interested in still taking part in South Africa’s politics in the post-election scenario, the party, or what’s left of it? will have to make some decisions FAST!
The options for the hollowed- out ANC, post- election, seem somewhat limited.
In view of their apparent rapidly declining fiscus, their one option is to print money; in order to create the illusion that the state’s financial state is healthier than it is, and to allow it to pay off -some of its debt. However; apparently, this is fraught with risk. The financial analysts can definitely answer that one better than I can.
Even though the ANC will probably hate the idea of collaborating with the other major parties such as the DA and the EFF, and perhaps the IFP in KZN; with the PA hanging on like a hyena waiting to grab such scraps of power that fall off the main table – this would probably be the best option for the fast-failing ANC to take.
(By the way; as far as many are concerned; despite the number of flushing toilets that have been built and the number of swimming pools that have been built; the jury is still out on whether Gayton is still a gangster or an opportunistic POLITICIAN! looking for opportunities to increase his power base. AFTER ALL- A YEAR IN POWER IN CENTRAL KAROO IS STILL ONLY A YEAR!)
Just imagine the scenario of the ANC so-called elite sitting around a table, surrounded by the enemies they have managed to fend-off from attacking them for the last thirty years; slavering at the prospect of finally ripping the useless tax thieves such as Gwede Mantashe, Fikile Mbalula, Paul Mashatile and the like out of their chairs in Luthuli House.
Make no mistake; If the ANC somehow wants to cling onto some vestige of power after 29 May by collaborating with people like Malema and Gayton Mackenzie of the PA then they’d better be well aware of who they are taking on as bedfellows because these two are completely ruthless when it comes to politIcal infighting, populist rhetoric and dishonest shenanigans to get their way. They ANC cadres have had it so easy for long because of being protected by patronage and family and struggle hero connections that I am sure they have lost any political acumen they had (if they ever had it in the first place). The seasoned, battle-hardened politicians they will have to face at that table WILL EAT THEM ALIVE!
The other relevant point that comes to mind is the realisation that after 30 odd years of political dominance, greed, unlimited access to the country’s coffers and unbridled luxury, the ANC will not just meekly give up power. Particularly as they are completely devoid of any sense of responsibility or appearance of caring for the population, they will go to any lengths possible to cobble together deals that will allow them to retain a portion of power for themselves.
Regarding the constant talk shops that are held between the various political opposition parties such as BOSA, ACTION SA the PA and the Multi-Party Charter signatories, in my opinion these are all completely useless unless they ALL FIND A WAY TO FIND PRACTICAL WAYS TO WORK TOGETHER, while collaborating with corporates, for the good of all our citizens, while considering it a PARAMOUNT priority to get rid of the ANC once and for all.
On a more positive note, Rob Hersov, a well-known, highly respected billionaire activist in South Africa assures us that there are 1.5 trillion rand, held on deposit by wealthy corporates in the country – (not invested that stand ready to be deployed to save our country!
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